Local community developers bidding on foreclosures in the second half of 2023 are signaling a slowdown in U.S. home price appreciation in the first half of 2024, with a rising risk that appreciation will dip back into negative territory. The risk of a double dip in home price appreciation varies substantially by market, even among some markets in the same region and state.
Bidding behavior for foreclosure properties on Auction.com in the first quarter of 2023 reliably predicted a rebound in retail home price appreciation in the third quarter of 2023. That prediction is documented in my last market outlook for HousingWire, published in May.
As anticipated by distressed property bidding behavior, median retail home prices increased on a year-over-year basis for three consecutive months, from July to September, following five consecutive months of year-over-year declines, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
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