In 2026, 65% of U.S. households cannot afford a median-priced new home, and elevated mortgage rates make affordability more sensitive to small home-price increases, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ latest Priced-Out analysis.

At a median new home price of $413,595 and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6%, roughly 88.2 million households are priced out of the market. If the median new home price goes up by $1,000, the monthly mortgage payment increases by about $6, and the required minimum income rises by nearly $300 per year, which prices an additional 156,405 households out of the market.

 

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