The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2023 SCE Housing Survey, released in April, reported some novel data about expectations for home prices, interest rates, and mortgage refinancing. While the data showed a sharp drop in home price expectations, some of the most notable findings concern renters. In this post, we take a deeper dive into how renters’ expectations and financial situations have evolved over the past year. We find that both owners and renters expect rents to rise rapidly over the next year, albeit at a slower pace than last year. Furthermore, we also show that eviction expectations rose sharply over the past twelve months, and that this increase was most pronounced for those in the lowest quartile of the income distribution.
We examine the situation of renters using the SCE Housing Survey, an annual module of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The Housing Survey, which has been fielded every February since 2014, asks questions specific to respondents’ housing market expectations; responses to those questions can then be combined with the standard expectations questions asked in the monthly core SCE. The 2023 survey includes 1,013 respondents, about one-quarter of whom are current renters.
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Elevated Rent Expectations Continue to Pressure Low‑Income Households